What if the rains do not come?

Risk-management solutions that increase opportunities for adaptation plans and resilience to climate change require an understanding of processes the trickle down effects droughts floods on hydrological socio-economic systems. To guide future expectations about droughts, this study aims assess large-scale variability stores (groundwater, soil moisture, surface water) their responses drought intensities over large semi-arid domains in Australia. Multi-scaled indicators synthesised from in-situ rainfall (SPI-standardised precipitation index), water budget (SPEI-standardised evapotranspiration model (soil moisture-SM), satellite observations (groundwater storage-GWS, extent-SWE, terrestrial storage-TWS) are employed climatic hotspots identified through statistical rotation. The link between these modes diagnosed using gaussian kernel-based SVMR (support vector machine regression), quantile function storage (QFS) is used response variability. capability capture impacts deficit agricultural systems explored by implementing a PLSR (partial least square regression). Results show (i) characteristics vary greatly across Australia but higher duration intensity predominant regions below latitude 25°S, (ii) (SPEI/SPI-12) better predictors such as TWS GWS, though latter shows strong opposite phase relationship with data, (iii) influence teleconnections predicted SPEI/SPI-12, Murray Darling basin-MDB (r=0.84, α=0.05) central/east coast (r=0.80, 0.79, major teleconnection hotspots, (iv) SM GWS losses MDB occurred 60% 44% time, respectively, during 2002-2017 period, (v) extreme events (droughts floods) affect distribution SWE, (vi) meteorological (SPEI/SPI-3) excellent metrics crop production. Choosing appropriate reflect freshwater ecosystems (including groundwater) anthropogenic constraints part key process investments sustainable management resources.